Monday, September 11, 2006

A Tale of Two Cities

The Bears win over the Packers wasn't as great an accomplishment as it seems, nor was the White Sox weekend a true disaster, but it definitely feels different to be a Bears fan than a White Sox fan at this moment. I'd love to dwell on the Bears successes, but the fact is, analyzing the impact of this weekend's AL Central battles is far more interesting, so I'll brace myself and face the White Sox' future.

On Friday morning, the Sox had about a 1 in 50 chance of catching the Tigers, and a 1 in 3 chance of winning the wild card. I argued that Sox fans needed to become Tigers fans for the rest of the weekend. I also pointed out that it didn't really matter what happened in the Tigers-Twins showdown, if the Sox didn't take care of the Indians. Well since then, the Sox took 2 out 3 from the Indians over the weekend (I'm just talking about since Friday morning), and the Twins won 3 in a row against the Tigers. So, what the heck does that mean? It's never a good sign when you have to engage in statistical analysis just to figure out whether or not to be happy with the weekend's events.

Today, the White Sox have a much better chance of winning the division: anywhere from about 1 in 25 to 1 in 20 according to Baseball Prospectus. That's an improvement, but hardly the odds one wants to hang the team's post-season hopes on. Unfortunately, the Sox best chance of reaching the play-offs -- winning the wild card -- has dropped to about 1 in 5.

With the team on its way to the west coast, it's time for Sox fans to start making peace with an early off-season. Overall, the Sox still have a 1 in 4 chance of making the post-season, not much worse than where things stood on Friday. And, I hope I'm wrong about this upcoming trip, and the unexpected happens this week in California. But this thing is slowly slipping away from the Sox, and it's pretty painful torture right now. Oh well, at least it's Bears season.


Blogger UnknownColumn said...

The Sox and Twins will both pass the Tiggers.

12:57 PM  
Blogger Criminal Appeal said...

BP only gives that about a 3% chance of happening, but I wouldn't mind if you're right.

1:50 PM  
Anonymous Hideki Matt Suey said...

Um, at what point do we pause to reflect upon how much big frank could be helping the Sox right now. It's scary true.

2:16 PM  

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