I'm Rooting for a Blimp Accident
In the Trib today, their Sox reporters debated this very issue. Mark Gonzalez said we should root for the Twins because the Sox can take care of their own business in a tight AL Central race. Dave Van Dyck said we should root for the Twins because it will be easier to catch the Tigers than the Twins at this point.
They're both idiots. I kid, but they are wrong. First, I'm not sure the White Sox have shown any capacity to take care of their own business against the Twins and Tigers. Yes, we've handled the Tigers well this year, but the Sox can't seem to beat anyone else. That, of course, could make this whole discussion moot, but we certainly can't count on playing well enough to beat out two teams in a tight divisional race. More importantly, Baseball Prospectus's latest post-season odds report says the Sox have a 1 in 50 chance of catching the Tigers for the division title. And that's allowing for a full regression to the mean by the Tigers over the remainder of the season.
No, Phil Rogers has it right. He argues that "the Sox's goal is making the playoffs, not winning the division, and the wild card remains the easier way to get there." And, as I pointed out yesterday (not that I'm gloating or anything), the Sox still have a 1 in 3 chance of catching the Twins according to BP. That's a lot better than 1 in 50. So, go Tigers! And, maybe, if the Sox can actually hold the Indians to single digits, we can put the Twins in our rearview mirrors for good this weekend. But I'm still rooting for suspensions and injuries.